Reliability Trade-Space Exploration Modelling for Satellite Anomalies Using Exponential Distribution

Muhammad Imran Haris Ahmad Mahmood; Nadirah Abdul Rahim; Abdul Mutholib

doi:10.31436/iiumej.v26i3.3788

Authors

Muhammad Imran Haris Ahmad Mahmood International Islamic University Malaysia https://orcid.org/0009-0001-4382-9965
Nadirah Abdul Rahim International Islamic University Malaysia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2508-5998
Abdul Mutholib International Islamic University Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31436/iiumej.v26i3.3788

Keywords:

Reliability, Trade-Space Exploration, Exponential, DDPs, RMSE, Satellite Anomalies

Abstract

The delivery of critical communication, navigation, and earth observation services relies on the reliability of satellite subsystems. However, satellites can be affected by radiation and temperature extremes. Anomalies can cause the system to fail and stop working. This research aims to fix the lack of a high-performance reliability model compared to previous work by integrating trade-space exploration (TSE) techniques and an exponential reliability mathematical model. Data from the Seradata database was analyzed using MATLAB to check for issues with antennas, transponders, amplifiers, and batteries as the prominent components of satellite anomalies. Studies were carried out by building parametric (Weibull, Exponential, and Poisson) and non-parametric (Kaplan-Meier and Monte Carlo Simulation) models, and all were assessed. Results were measured using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), revealing that the Exponential model performed most accurately compared to other mathematical models. After that, the TSE framework was applied to examine the Design Dependent Parameters (DDPs): reliability, design life, and system performance. The results conclude that the newly developed exponential-based reliability TSE model shows a promising outcome, with RMSE values of 34.2, 10.2, 19.6, and 19.9 compared to Nadirah’s model and Shazana’s model, which have RMSE values of 16.1, 49.7, 28.2, and 27.6 for antenna, transponder, amplifier, and battery, respectively.

ABSTRAK: Penghantaran Penghantaran perkhidmatan adalah penting dalam komunikasi, navigasi, dan pemerhatian bumi pada kebolehcapaian subsistem satelit. Walau bagaimanapun, satelit boleh terjejas oleh radiasi dan perubahan suhu ekstrem. Anomali boleh menyebabkan sistem gagal dan berhenti berfungsi. Penyelidikan ini bertujuan bagi memperbaiki kekurangan model kebolehcapaian berprestasi tinggi daripada kerja terdahulu dengan mengintegrasi teknik penerokaan ruang dagangan (TSE) dan model matematik kebolehcapaian Eksponen. Data daripada pangkalan data Seradata dianalisa menggunakan MATLAB bagi memeriksa isu antena, transponder, penguat, dan bateri sebagai komponen utama anomali satelit. Kajian dijalankan dengan membina model parametrik (Weibull, Eksponen, dan Poisson) dan non-parametrik (Kaplan-Meier dan Simulasi Monte Carlo). Dapatan kajian diukur menggunakan Ralat Kuadrat Purata Akar (RMSE), menunjukkan bahawa model Eksponen berfungsi paling tepat berbanding model matematik lain. Kemudian, rangka kerja TSE digunakan bagi mengkaji Parameter Bergantung Reka Bentuk (DDPs), yang merangkumi kebolehpercayaan, hayat reka bentuk, dan prestasi sistem. Dapatan kajian menunjukkan bahawa kebolehpercayaan model TSE berasaskan eksponensial yang baru dibangunkan menunjukkan hasil yang memberangsangkan di mana nilai RMSE adalah 34.2, 10.2, 19.6, dan 19.9 berbanding dengan model Nadirah dan model Shazana adalah 16.1, 49.7, 28.2, dan 27.6 untuk antena, transponder, penguat, dan bateri.

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