STRATEGIES TO REDUCE THE NUMBER OF SEVERELY INJURED VICTIMS IN ADOLESCENT MOTORCYCLE RIDERS

Pada Lumba; Anton Ariyanto; Ahmad Fathoni

doi:10.31436/iiumej.v25i1.2997

Authors

Pada Lumba Universitas Pasir Pangaraian https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4705-0254
Anton Ariyanto Universitas Pasir Pangaraian
Ahmad Fathoni Universitas Pasir Pangaraian https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1490-7298

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31436/iiumej.v25i1.2997

Keywords:

Accident, Bayesian, Mildly, Motorcycle, Severely

Abstract

Statistical data in 2021 in Indonesia shows that the number of accident victims reached 103,645 cases. Around 25% of these accident victims were underage drivers. For this reason, efforts must be made to minimize the number of accident victims, especially avoiding severe injuries. The criteria for respondents are motorcycle riders aged 12 - 25 years who are still categorized as adolescent riders. The data collection was carried out by interviewing respondents for approximately 10 minutes. For data analysis, the number of respondents used was 308 respondents. The location for data collection was Riau Province, Indonesia. The data was analyzed by Bayesian network. To get a good model, the basic model was validated. The number of respondents used to validate this model was 107 respondents. The results of the analysis show that the probability of an adolescent driver to experience severe injury is 27% and mild injury is 73%.Scenario 1 shows that poor driving performance will increase the probability of severe injury by 3%.Scenario 2 shows that driver fatigue will increase the probability of severe injury by 3%.Scenario 3 shows that drivers who conduct traffic violations will increase the probability of severe injury by 5%.Scenario 4 shows that drivers who perform long trips(more than 1 hour) increase their fatigue from 28% to 60%, which also increases the probability of severe injury by 1%.Scenario 5 shows that late night driving (between 24:00 – 06:00) not only increases the probability of fatigue but also increases the probability of severe injury by 1%.Strategic steps to reduce severe injury among adolescent motorcyclists include driving with good performance, avoiding fatigue-inducing conditions, abiding by all traffic rules, and avoiding driving between the hours of 24:00-06:00.

ABSTRAK: Data statistik pada tahun 2021 di Indonesia menunjukkan jumlah mangsa kemalangan mencapai 103,645 kes. Kira-kira 25% mangsa kemalangan ini adalah pemandu bawah umur. Oleh itu, usaha perlu dilaksanakan bagi meminimumkan mangsa kemalangan, terutama dalam mengelakkan kecederaan parah. Kriteria responden adalah penunggang motosikal berumur 12 - 25 tahun yang masih dikategori sebagai penunggang remaja. Pengumpulan data dijalankan dengan menemu bual responden selama lebih kurang 10 minit. Analisis data ini melibatkan 308 orang responden. Lokasi pengumpulan data adalah di Riau, Indonesia. Data dianalisis dengan rangkaian Bayesian. Bagi mendapatkan model terbaik, model asas telah disahkan. Bilangan responden yang terlibat dalam mengesahkan model ini adalah seramai 107 orang responden. Dapatan kajian menunjukkan kebarangkalian pemandu remaja yang mengalami kecederaan parah adalah 27% dan cedera ringan sebanyak 73%. Senario 1 menunjukkan pemanduan tidak berhemah akan meningkatkan kebarangkalian cedera parah sebanyak 3%. Senario 2 menunjukkan bahawa memandu dalam keadaan letih akan meningkatkan kebarangkalian cedera parah sebanyak 3%. Senario 3 menunjukkan bahawa pemandu yang melanggar peraturan lalu lintas akan meningkatkan kebarangkalian cedera parah sebanyak 5%. Senario 4 menunjukkan pemandu yang melakukan perjalanan melebihi 1 jam akan meningkatkan keletihan dari 28% kepada 60%, juga menyumbang kepada peningkatan kebarangkalian cedera parah sebanyak 1%. Senario 5 menunjukkan bahawa pemanduan lewat malam (antara 24.00 – 06.00) bukan sahaja meningkatkan kebarangkalian keletihan tetapi juga meningkatkan kebarangkalian cedera parah sebanyak 1%. Langkah strategik bagi mengurangkan kecederaan parah di kalangan penunggang motosikal remaja termasuk: memandu dengan berhemah, tidak memandu dalam keadaan letih, mematuhi segala undang-undang jalan raya dan mengelak dari memandu pada jam 24.00 hingga 06.00.

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