Comparative Assessment of Numerical Techniques for Weibull Parameters’ Estimation and the Performance of Wind Energy Conversion Systems in Nigeria

Ignatius Okakwu; Daniel Akinyele; Olakunle Olabode; Titus Ajewole; Emmanuel Oluwasogo; Ajibola Oyedeji

doi:10.31436/iiumej.v24i1.2611

Authors

Ignatius Okakwu Olabisi Onabanjo University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1252-9924
Daniel Akinyele Olabisi Onabanjo University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8158-1921
Olakunle Olabode Osun State University
Titus Ajewole Osun State University
Emmanuel Oluwasogo National University, Daegu, South Korea https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9863-9018
Ajibola Oyedeji Olabisi Onabanjo University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0180-492X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31436/iiumej.v24i1.2611

Keywords:

Wind Speed, Numerical Method, Weibull Distribution, Energy Cost

Abstract

The wind speed of a location is a critical parameter for analyzing wind energy conversion systems. Background knowledge has revealed that the two-parameter Weibull distribution is commonly used for fitting wind speed data because of its simplicity, flexibility and suitability. This research study examines wind speed data from five locations in Nigeria (Kano, Maiduguri, Jos, Abuja and Akure). It employs five numerical techniques, namely the maximum likelihood method, method of moment, power density method, empirical method and the logarithmic moment method, to estimate the Weibull parameters based on the locations’ data. The goodness of fit test is used to determine which numerical method best fits the distribution. The paper also considers the techno-economic design of wind electricity of five 25 kW pitch-controlled wind turbines with dissimilar characteristics. The test result presents the method of moment and empirical method as the best methods for calculating the Weibull parameters. Results also show that wind turbine-3 has the least cost of energy and wind turbine-5 has the highest cost of energy.

ABSTRAK: Kelajuan angin sesuatu lokasi adalah parameter kritikal bagi menganalisa sistem penukaran tenaga angin. Latar belakang berkaitan telah mendedahkan 2-parameter taburan Weibull (Wbl) lazimnya digunakan bagi memadan data kelajuan angin berdasarkan kesederhanaan, fleksibiliti dan kesesuaian. Kajian penyelidikan ini adalah berkaitan ujian data kelajuan angin pada lima lokasi di Nigeria (Kano, Maiduguri, Jos, Abuja dan Akure). Ia menggunakan lima teknik berangka iaitu kaedah kemungkinan maksimum, kaedah momen, kaedah ketumpatan kuasa, kaedah empirikal dan kaedah momen logaritma bagi menganggar parameter Weibull berdasarkan lokasi data. Ujian kesesuaian digunakan bagi memastikan kaedah berangka adalah padanan paling sesuai bagi taburan. Kajian ini juga turut menimbang reka bentuk tekno-ekonomi elektrik angin bagi lima turbin angin 25 kW kawalan anggul dengan ciri berbeza. Dapatan kajian menunjukkan momen dan kaedah empirikal adalah kaedah terbaik bagi mengira parameter Weibull. Ini menunjukkan bahawa turbin angin-3 mempunyai kos tenaga paling rendah dan turbin angin-5 mempunyai kos tenaga tertinggi.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

References

S. O. Oyedepo, “Energy and sustainable development in Nigeria: One way forward. Energy,” Sustainability and Society, vol. 2, pp. 1-17, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/2192-0567-2-15

K. Mohammadi, A. Mostafaeipour, Y. Dinpashoh and N. Pouya, “Electricity generation and energy cost estimation of large-scale wind turbines in Jarandagh, Iran,” Journal of Energy, pp. 1-8, 2014.

L. Zheng, G. Peng, H. Ruihua and S. Hexu, “Current status and development trend of wind power generation-based hydrogen production technology,” Journal of Energy Exploration and Exploitation, vol. 37, pp. 5-25, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0144598718787294

O. A. Mahmure, A. S. Ayse, U. O. F. Seniye, E. K. Merve, and O. A. Semih, “A comparative analysis of renewable energy use and policies: Global and Turkish perspectives,” Journal of Sustainability, vol. 7, pp. 16379-16407, 2015. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su71215820

E. Norbert, “On the path to sustainability: Key issues on Nigeria’s sustainable development,” Energy Report, vol. 2, pp. 28-34, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2016.01.004

C. W. Njiru and S. C. Letema, “Energy poverty and its implication on standard of living in Kenya,” Journal of Energy, pp. 1-12, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3196567

B. Cory, S. Deanna, T. Heather, M. Leon, E. Dana and K. Willett, “Cost-minimized combinations of wind power, solar power and electrochemical storage, powering the grid up to 99.9% of the time,” Journal of Power Sources, vol. 225, pp. 60-74, 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpowsour.2012.09.054

A. S. A. Badawi, N. F. Hasbullaha, S. H. Yusoff, S. Khan, A. Hashim, A. Zyoud and M. Elamassie, “Weibull probability distribution of wind speed for Gaza strip for 10 years,” Applied Mechanics and Materials, vol. 892, pp. 284-291, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.892.284

S. O. Oyedepo, M. S. Adaramola and S. S. Paul, “Analysis of wind speed data and wind energy potential in three selected locations in South-east Nigeria,” International Journal of energy and environment engineering, vol. 3, pp. 1-11, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/2251-6832-3-7

M. S. Adaramola, O. M. Oyewola, O. S. Ohunakin and O. O. Akinnawonu, “Performance evaluation of wind turbines for energy generation in Niger Delta, Nigeria,” Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, vol. 6, pp. 75-85, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2014.01.001

T. R. Ayodele, A. S. Ogunjuyigbe and T. O. Amusan, “Techno-economic analysis of utilizing wind energy for water pumping in some selected communities of Oyo state, Nigeria,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 91, pp. 335-343, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.026

O. O. Ajayi, R. O. Fagbenle, J. Katende, J. M. Ndambuki, D. O. Omole and A. A. Badejo, “Wind energy study and energy cost of wind electricity generation in Nigeria: Past and recent results and a case study for south west Nigeria,” Energies, vol. 7, no. 12, pp. 8508-8534, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en7128508

M. A. Sulaiman, I. K. Okakwu, A. S. Alayande, O. E. Olabode and A. E. Ibhaze, “Wind energy evaluation and turbine identification for power generation in some selected areas in Nigeria,” Journal of engineering studies and research, vol. 26, pp. 67-76, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29081/jesr.v26i2.170

I. K. Okakwu, O. E. Olabode, A. S. Alayande, T. E. Somefun and T. O. Ajewole, “Techno-economic assessment of wind turbines in Nigeria,” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 11, pp. 240-246, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.10030

O. S. Ohunakin, M. S. Adaramola and O. M. Oyewola, “Wind energy evaluation for electricity generation using WECS in seven selected locations in Nigeria,” Applied Energy, vol. 88, pp. 3197-3206, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.03.022

M. S. Adaramola, S. S. Paul and S. O. Oyedepo, “Assessment of electricity generation and energy cost of wind energy conversion systems in north-central Nigeria,” Energy Conversion and Management, vol. 52, pp. 3363-3368, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2011.07.007

K. Mohammadi, A. Mostafaeipour, Y. Dinpashoh and N. Pouya, “Electricity generation and energy cost estimation of large-scale wind turbines in Jarandagh, Iran,” Journal of Energy, vol. 613681, pp. 1-8, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/613681

O. O. Ajayi, R. O. Fagbenle, J. Katende, S. A. Aasa and J. O. Okeniyi, “Wind profile characteristics and turbine performance analysis in Kano, north-western Nigeria” International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering, vol. 4, no. 27, 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/2251-6832-4-27

M. A. Alkhalidi, S. Al-Dabbous, S. Neelamani and H. A. Aldashti, “Wind energy potential at coastal and offshore locations in the state of Kuwait,” Renewable Energy, vol. 135, pp. 529-539, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.12.039

A. Mostafaeipour, M. Jadidi, K. Mohammadi and A. Sedaghat, “An analysis of wind energy potential and economic evaluation in Zahedan, Iran,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 30, pp. 641-650, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.11.016

T. R. Ayodele, A. A. Jimoh, J. L. Munda and J. T. Agee, “A statistical analysis of wind distribution and wind power potential in the coastal region of South Africa,” International Journal of Green Energy, vol. 10, pp. 814-834, 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15435075.2012.727112

M. Soulouknga, S. O. Oyedepo, S. Y. Doka and T. C. Kofane, “Evaluation of the cost of producing wind-generated electricity in Chad,” International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering, vol. 11, pp. 275-287, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40095-019-00335-y

B. Belabes, A. Youcefi, O. Guerri, M. Djamai and A. Kaabeche, “Evaluation of wind energy potential and estimation of cost using wind energy turbines for electricity generation on north of Algeria,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 51, pp. 1245-1255, 2015. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.043

T. R. Ayodele, A. S. O. Ogunjuyigbe and T. O. Amusan, “Wind power utilization assessment and economic analysis of wind turbines across fifteen locations in the six geographical zones of Nigeria,” Journal of Cleaner Production, pp. 1-32, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.04.060

D. Kang, K. Ko and J. Huh, “Comparative study of different methods for estimating Weibull parameters: A case study on Jeju Island, South Korea,” Energies, vol. 11, pp. 1-19, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en11020356

Y. A. Kaplan, “Determination of the best Weibull methods for wind power assessment in the southern region of Turkey,” IET Renewable Power Generation, vol. 11, pp. 175-182, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1049/iet-rpg.2016.0206

I. K. Okakwu, E. S. Oluwasogo, A. E. Ibhaze and A. L. Imoize, “A comparative study of time series analysis for forecasting energy demand in Nigeria,” Nigerian Journal of Technology, vol. 38, pp. 465-469, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4314/njt.v38i2.24

S. Rehman, A. M. M. Alam, J. P. Meyer and L. M. Al-Hadhrami, “Wind speed characteristics and resource assessment using Weibull parameters,” International Journal of Green Energy, vol. 9, pp. 800-814, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15435075.2011.641700

A. S. K. Dalabeeh, “Techno-economic analysis of wind power generation for selected locations in Jordan,” Renewable Energy, vol. 101, pp. 1369-1378, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2016.10.003

Wind turbine power calculations. RWE npower renewables, Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, UK.

D. O. Akinyele, R. K. Rayudu and N. K. C. Nair, “Grid-independent renewable energy solutions for residential use: The case of an offgrid house in Wellington, New Zealand,” in IEEE PES Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC) 2015, pp. 1-5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/APPEEC.2015.7380969

L. Freris and D. Infield, “Renewable energy in power systems,” 1st Ed., 2008, Wiley and Sons, UK.

L. Olatomiwa, S. Mekhilef and O. S. Ohunakin, “Hybrid renewable power supply for rural health clinic (RHC) in six geo-political zones of Nigeria,” Sustainable Energy Technology and Assessment, vol. 13, pp. 1-12, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2015.11.001

E. Alsema, “Environmental life cycle assessment of solar home systems,” Department of Science Technology and Society, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands, Report NWS-E-2000-15, pp. 1-89, 2000.

A. Q. Jakhrani, A. K. Othman, A. R. H. Rigit, and S. R. Samo, “Estimation of carbon footprints from diesel generator emissions,” in Conference on Green and Ubiquitous Technology, 2012, pp. 78-81. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/GUT.2012.6344193