The Midnight Dilemma: Navigating Nigeria's 2023 Fuel Subsidy Removal

Abstract

This decision-focused teaching case examines the strategic dilemma facing the incoming Nigerian presidential administration in May 2023 regarding the removal of the country's entrenched fuel subsidy. For decades, the subsidy served as an implicit social contract in Africa's largest oil-producing nation, despite consuming vast fiscal resources and disproportionately benefiting wealthier citizens. As President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu prepares for his May 29 inauguration, his transition committee faces a critical choice: remove the subsidy immediately to avert fiscal collapse, delay removal to build social consensus, or adopt a phased approach. The case requires students to navigate competing stakeholder pressures from labor unions, international financial institutions, and a skeptical public. Furthermore, it challenges students to apply principles of ethical governance (amanah or stewardship) and justice to balance macroeconomic necessity with the welfare of vulnerable populations. The narrative ends at the decision point, inviting students to analyze the constraints, evaluate alternatives, and formulate a strategic action plan.