Forecasting Hotel Service Indicators in the Khorezm Region, Uzbekistan

Abstract

Identifying the factors influencing the development of tourism and hotel services in the Khorezm region, examining their interrelationships, and forecasting future trends based on econometric models constitute an urgent research task. In the growth of tourism service volume in the Khorezm region, hotel and similar accommodation services play a decisive role. Accordingly, this study identifies several key determinants affecting regional tourism service volume, including the number of hotels and similar accommodation facilities, bed capacity, the number of accommodated guests, and the number of overnight stays. Based on annual data for the period 2013–2024, a twelve-year dataset was constructed to develop a multi-factor econometric model. The dependent variable is the volume of tourism services in the region (million UZS), while the explanatory variables include: (X1) the number of hotels and similar accommodation facilities, (X2) the number of beds, (X3) the number of accommodated guests, and (X4) the number of overnight stays. In addition, ARIMA models were applied to forecast key tourism and hotel industry indicators for 2025–2028. The results demonstrate a steady upward trend in tourism service volume and hotel infrastructure indicators, confirming the critical role of accommodation capacity in regional tourism development.