Stock Price Forecasting in an Interest Free Economy

Abstract

Stock price forecasting models are equally important for investor decisions in the western market as well as in the Islamic market. Both dividend discount and earning-based valuation models use interest rate as a fundamental measure to reflect the present value of future dividends and earnings respectively. In general terms, stock prices are forecasted based on the correlation between stock return and interest rate. However, in an Islamic, interest-free economy, no such correlation is available. This paper suggests that an interest-free economy could realize the principle of market efficiency more efficiently and would render stock prices more related to economic realities. In other words, stock prices would capture the real growth component of the concerned stock, rather than the speculative and artificial ones. It is argued that such an economy provides more accurate indicators to investors as to where to direct their funds for potential growth at a rate higher than the market capitalization rate.