The Impact of Uncertainty Spillover on Cash Holdings Behavior of Turkish Firms

Authors

  • Omer Faruk Tan Marmara University, Turkey
  • Cagri Aksoy-Hazir Marmara University, Turkey

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31436/ijema.v30i2.1025

Keywords:

Cash holding, World uncertainty spillovers index, Turkey, Panel data

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of the World Uncertainty Spillover Index-United States (WUSI-USA) on cash holdings policy of 211 Turkish firms between 2005 and 2019, applying unbalanced panel data regression strategy. According to the findings, a positive relationship exists between uncertainty spillovers and cash holdings. When faced with uncertainty, firms prefer to restrain cash reserves for a precautionary motive. From the real options perspective, firms delay or postpone their investments under uncertain conditions. In addition, dividend payments, cash flow, tangibility, non-cash working capital, short-term debt, and capital expenditure are major determinants of cash holdings. Finally, under alternative models, we find robust results.

References

Ahir, H., N. Bloom, and D. Furceri. “The World Uncertainty Index.” In SSRN Electronic Journal. (2018): 20189.

_____, and N. Bloom, and D. Furceri. What the Continued Global Uncertainty Means for You. https://blogs.imf.org/2021/01/19/what-the-continued-global-uncertainty-means-for-you/. IMFBlog. (2021).

Al-Thaqeb, S.A., and B.G. Algharabali. “Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Literature Review.” Journal of Economic Asymmetries 20 (2019): e00133.

Ashhari, Z.M., and D.R. Faizal “Determinants and Performance of Cash Holding: Evidence from Small Business in Malaysia.” International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting 26, no. 2 (2018): 457-73.

Baker, S.R., and N. Bloom. “Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments.” NBER Working Papers, (2013): 1–31. http://www.nber.org/papers/w19475

______, N. Bloom, and S.J. Davis. “Measuring economic policy uncertainty.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 131 (2016): 1593–636.

Bates, T. W., K.M. Kahle, and R.M. Stulz. “Why do U.S. Firms Hold So Much More Cash Than They Used To?” Journal of Finance 64, no. 5 (2009): 1985–2021.

Baum, C.F., M. Caglayan, N. Ozkan, and O. Talavera. “The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Non-Financial Firms’ Demand for Liquidity.” Review of Financial Economics 15, no.4 (2006): 289–304.

______, M. Caglayan, A. Stephan, and O. Talavera “Uncertainty Determinants of Corporate Liquidity.” Economic Modelling 25, no. 5 (2008): 833–49.

Bernanke, B. “Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Cyclical Investment.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 98, no. 1 (1983): 85–106.

Bigelli, M., and J. Sánchez-Vidal. “Cash Holdings in Private Firms.” Journal of Banking and Finance 36, no: 1 (2012): 26–35.

Bliss, B.A., Y. Cheng, and D.J. Denis. “Corporate Payout, Cash Retention, and the Supply of Credit: Evidence from the 2008-2009 Credit Crisis.” Journal of Financial Economics 115, no: 3 (2015): 521–40.

Boubakri, N., S.E. Ghoul, and W. Saffar. “Cash Holdings of Politically Connected Firms.” Journal of Multinational Financial Management 23, no. 4 (2013): 338–55.

Canh, N.P., N.T. Binh, S.D. Thanh, and C. Schinckus. “Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty.” International Economics 161 (2020): 159–72.

Chen, J.L., Z.T. Jia, and P.W. Sun. “Real Option Component of Cash Holdings, Business Cycle, and Stock Returns.” International Review of Financial Analysis 45 (2016): 97–106.

Cheng, C.H.J., C.W. Chiu, W.B. Hankins, and A.L. Stone. “Partisan Conflict, Policy Uncertainty and Aggregate Corporate Cash Holdings.” Journal of Macroeconomics 58 (2018): 78–90.

Chiu, W.C., C.W. Wang, and J.I. Peña. “Tail Risk Spillovers and Corporate Cash Holdings.” Journal of Multinational Financial Management 36 (2016): 30–48.

Davis, S.J. “An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty.” (Working Paper 22740) (2016).

Demir, E., and O. Ersan. “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Cash Holdings: Evidence from BRIC Countries.” Emerging Markets Review 33 (2017): 189–200.

Dittmar, A., J. Mahrt-Smith, and H. Servaes. “International Corporate Governance and Corporate Cash Holdings.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 38, no. 1 (2003): 111–33.

Drobetz, W., and M.C. Grüninger. “Corporate cash holdings: Evidence from Switzerland.” Financial Markets and Portfolio Management 21, no. 3 (2007): 293–324.

______, S. El Ghoul, O. Guedhami, and M. Janzen. “Policy Uncertainty, Investment, and the Cost of Capital.” Journal of Financial Stability 39 (2018): 28–45.

Duong, H.N., J.H. Nguyen, M. Nguyen, and S. G. Rhee. “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Cash Holdings.” In Centre for Accounting, Governance and Taxation Research, Working Papers (2017).

______. “Navigating Through Economic Policy Uncertainty: The Role of Corporate Cash Holdings.” Journal of Corporate Finance 62 (2020).

Feng, X., Y.L. Lo, and K.C. Chan. “Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Cash Holdings: Firm-Level Evidence from an Emerging Market.” Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics 29, no. 2 (2022): 363-85.

Fritz F.C., Hartzell, J.C., Titman, S., and Twite, G. “Why Do Firms Hold So Much Cash? A Tax-Based Explanation.” Journal of Financial Economics 86, no. 3 (2007): 579–607.

García-Teruel, P.J., and P. Martínez-Solano. “On the Determinants of SME Cash Holdings: Evidence from Spain.” Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 35, no. 1–2 (2008): 127–49.

Goodell, J., A. Goyal, and A. Urquhart. “Uncertainty of Uncertainty and Firm Cash Holdings.” Journal of Financial Stability 56 (2021): 100922.

Guizani, M. “The Financial Determinants of Corporate Cash Holdings in an Oil Rich Country: Evidence from Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.” Borsa Istanbul Review 17, no. 3 (2017) 133–43.

Gulen, H., and M. Ion. “Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment.” Review of Financial Studies 29, no. 3 (2016): 523–64.

Guney, Y., A. Ozkan, and N. Ozkan. “International Evidence on the Non-Linear Impact of Leverage on Corporate Cash Holdings.” Journal of Multinational Financial Management 17 (2007): 45–60.

Hankins, W.B., A.L. Stone, C.H.J. Cheng, and C.W. Chiu. “Corporate Decision Making in the Presence of Political Uncertainty: The Case of Corporate Cash Holdings.” Financial Review 55, no. 2 (2020): 307–37.

Haron, R., and K. Ibrahim. “Target Capital Structure and Speed of Adjustment: Panel Data Evidence on Malaysia Shariah Compliant Securities.” International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting 20, no. 2 (2012): 87-107

Huang, J., Y. Luo, and Y. Peng. “Corporate Financial Asset Holdings Under Economic Policy Uncertainty: Precautionary Saving or Speculating?” International Review of Economics and Finance 76 (2021): 1359-78.

International Monetary Fund. Spillover Report. In Policy Papers 2015, no. 43 (2015).

Istiak, K., and M.R. Alam. “US Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillover on the Stock Markets of the GCC Countries.” Journal of Economic Studies 47, no.1 (2020): 36–50.

Jebran, K., A. Iqbal, K.U. Bhat, M.A. Khan, and M. Hayat. “Determinants of Corporate Cash Holdings in Tranquil and Turbulent Period: Evidence from an Emerging Economy.” Financial Innovation 5, no.1 (2019): 1-12.

Jiang, Y., Z. Zhu, G. Tian, and H. Nie. “Determinants of Within and Cross-Country Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers: Evidence from US and China.” Finance Research Letters 31 (2019): 195–206.

Kim, A.C., D.C. Mauer, A.E. Sherman, and C. Ma. “The Determinants of Corporate Liquidity: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 33, no. 3 (1998): 335–59.

Koo, J., and K. Maeng. “Investment Opportunities and Cash Holdings of Firms: An Empirical Study on Korean Firms.” Applied Economics 51, no. 23 (2019): 2492–500.

Kotcharin, S., and S. Maneenop. “Geopolitical Risk and Corporate Cash Holdings in the Shipping Industry.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 136 (2020): 1–17.

Li, X. “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Cash Policy: International Evidence.” Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 38, no. 6 (2019): 106694.

Liu, G., and C. Zhang. “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firms’ Investment and Financing Decisions in China.” China Economic Review 63 (2020).

Lozano, M.B., and S. Yaman. “The European Financial Crisis and Firms’ Cash Holding Policy: An Analysis of the Precautionary Motive.” Global Policy 11 (2020): 84–94.

Opler, T., L. Pinkowitz, H. Stulz, and R. Williamson. “The Determinants and Implications of Corporate Cash Holdings.” Journal of Financial Economics 52 (1999): 3–46.

Ozkan, A., and N. Ozkan. “Corporate Cash Holdings: An Empirical Investigation of UK Companies.” Journal of Banking and Finance 28, no. 9 (2004): 2103–34.

Phan, H.V., N.H. Nguyen, H.T. Nguyen, and S. Hegde. “Policy Uncertainty and Firm Cash Holdings.” Journal of Business Research 95 (2019): 71–82.

Pinkowitz, L. and R.M. Stulz, R.G. Williamson. “Do Firms in Countries with Poor Protection of Investors Rights Hold More Cash?” NBER Working Paper Series. (2003).

Raghibi, A., C.N. Thanh, and L. Oubdi. “Optimal Level, Partial Speed of Adjustment and Determinants of Corporate Cash Holding: Evidence from MENA Countries.” Indonesian Capital Market Review 13, (2021): 26-38.

Su, X., S. Zhou, R. Xue, and J. Tian. “Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Raise Corporate Precautionary Cash Holdings? Evidence from China.” Accounting and Finance 60, no. 5 (2020): 4567–92.

Toparl?, E.A., A.N. Çat?k, and M. Balc?lar. “The Impact of Oil Prices on the Stock Returns in Turkey: A TVP-VAR Approach.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 535 (2019): 122392.

Uyar, A., and C. Kuzey. “Determinants of Corporate Cash Holdings: Evidence from the Emerging Market of Turkey.” Applied Economics 46, no. 9 (2014): 1035–48.

Wang, K.-H., D. P. Xiong, N. Mirza, X. F. Shao, and X. G. Yue. “Does Geopolitical Risk Uncertainty Strengthen or Depress Cash Holdings of Oil Enterprises? Evidecen from China.” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal 66 (2021): 101516.

Wang, Q. “Economic Cycle, Uncertainty of Economic Policy and Cash Holding of Listed Companies.” Modern Economy 10, no. 1 (2019): 281–97.

Wang, Y., Y. Ji, X. Chen, and C. Song. “Inflation, Operating Cycle, and Cash Holdings.” China Journal of Accounting Research 7, no. 4 (2014): 263–76.

Xu, N., Q. Chen, Y. Xu, and K.C. Chan, K.C. “Political Uncertainty and Cash Holdings: Evidence from China.” Journal of Corporate Finance 40 (2016) 276–95.

Yaprak, A., T. Yosun, and D. Cetindamar. “The Influence of Firm-Specific and Country-Specific Advantages in the Internationalization of Emerging Market Firms: Evidence from Turkey.” International Business Review 27, no. 1 (2018): 198–207.

Yilmaz I, and G. Acar. “The Effect of Cash Conversion Cycle on Profitability in Omani Companies.” International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting 27, no. 2 (2019): 269-90

Zhang, X., Z. Zhang, and H. Zhou. “Oil Price Uncertainty and Cash Holdings: Evidence from China.” Energy Economics 87 (2020): 104732.

Downloads

Published

2022-12-28

How to Cite

Tan, O. F., & Aksoy-Hazir, C. (2022). The Impact of Uncertainty Spillover on Cash Holdings Behavior of Turkish Firms. International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting, 30(2), 481–503. https://doi.org/10.31436/ijema.v30i2.1025

Issue

Section

Articles